Friday, June 29, 2012

Nifty Elliott Wave alaysis for 29-06-2012

Nifty did not start impulsive move yesterday. Hence our earlier view and wave count is mostly negated.
Alternate counting looks like a contracting triangle might be in play starting from 5189.40. However there is one wave 'c' within this is counted as 1-2-3-4-5 but as per triangle rules all 5 waves should be 3-3-3-3-3. A closer look at this wave 'c' may help us to validate the count.

Another alternative which is already counted before is that a flat correction from 5189.40 which supposedly ended with a truncated 5 wave near 5095.55. For this to be still valid we should see a leading diagonal for wave '1' of the impulse 'C'. This will have an internal wave count  as 5-3-5-3-5. So far the move from 5095.55 to 5158.85 can be counted as a 5 wave and the correction followed after that was a clear 3 wave a-b-c.

One more alternative is that the wave 'C' itself is developing like an ending diagonal. For the time being we shall not pursue this option. When more evidences emerge then let us validate this.

At this stage we are keeping both the options open and let the market validate and guide us.

Option 1 - Market may have to move down a bit and touch the developing line somewhere near 5100-5120 [mostly near 5110] range and then bounce like crazy.

Option 2 - Start another 5 wave upmove from current position itself.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis of hourly chart:






Nifty Elliott Wave analysis of 5 min chart:






Nifty Pivot Table


Nifty Heikin Ashi Chart for 29-06-2012

As per the  daily chart we are still bullish as the candle is Blue









Thursday, June 28, 2012

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 28-06-2012

Nifty
Nifty has spent good amount of time in the second wave considering the swift move of wave 1. It appears like the undercurrent for the upmove is so much that the wave 2 was a flat correction retracing only 24% as part of the ‘a’ which is a double zigzag. Next move up started unfolding like a zigzag again and moved beyond the origin of wave ‘a’, actually reaching 106.84% of wave ‘a’. This indicated that the wave ‘c’ of the flat [3-3-5] which is an impulse down may overshoot a=c. Infact it almost kissed 2 x c [short of only 0.25 points].

With this Nifty seems to have completed wave ‘2’ as per Elliott Wave analysis. Now the very obvious and violent wave ‘3’ to unfold. Given the recent past experience of multiple resistnace zones near 5180 [5175/5185/5195/5205 etc….] wave ‘3’ may subdivide and may have multiple corrections within it.

Nevertheless this wave has to be swift. If not then it will rise concerns on the wave count and possible downside.



Wave start
Wave End
Length
Ratio
Alt


5095.55
5131.4
35.85




5131.4
5120.8
10.6
0.295676


1
5095.55
5158.85
63.3
TRUE
58.0053
5178.805
2






a
5158.85
5143.5
15.35
0.242496


b
5143.5
5159.9
16.4
106.84%


c
5159.9
5144.55

24.8363
30.7





5135.064
5129.2

3
5129.45


5192.75
5231.869
5295.169










So an Equality [this will ask for wave 5 to be shorter than wave 1/3] to wave 1 will have a target of 5192.75 for wave 3. If wave 3 is 1.618 times wave 1 then it will have a target of 5231.85 or 2.618 times wave 1 then

 will have a target of 5295.15. Let us wait and see which one market chooses.
Nifty Elliott wave analysis for hourly chart:


Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 5 min chart:








Nifty  PivotTable:

Nifty Heikin Ashi Chart for 28-06-2012

Nifty Heikin Ashi Daily Chart : View Bullish as the candle is blue

Nifty Heikin Ashi Hourly Chart :

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Nifty Elliott wave analysis 27-06-2012 Intra day update

Nifty appear to have completed wave 'ii' correction of the upmove as a flat.
Wave 'a' was a double zigzag (3-3-3), 'b' was a simple zigzag (3) and 'c' was an impulse (5) completing near 2 x a = 2 x 15.35 = 30.7 [5159.9-30.7 = 5129.2, at 5129.45




Wave start
Wave End
Length
Ratio
Alt

1
5095.55
5131.4
35.85



2
5131.4
5120.8
10.6
0.295676


3
5120.8
5158.85
38.05
TRUE
58.0053
5178.805
4






a
5158.85
5143.5
15.35



b
5143.5
5159.9
16.4
106.84%


c
5159.9
5144.55

24.8363
30.7





5135.064
5129.2

5
5129.45













Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 27-06-2012

In the current form Nifty appears to have completed the flat correction in wave B. Yesterday late in the trading it appears to have commenced or started the wave C upwards.

Wave B looks like is a very complex flat a-b-c. The sub wave ‘a’ seems to be very steep, from 5189.4 to 5041.80 completed in nearly 5 hours. The sub wave ‘b’ of this flat almost took 32 hours to complete. This itself was a very complex pattern with wave ‘a’ as a triangle, wave ‘b’ a simple zigzag and wave ‘c’ again a complex zigzag. The final wave ‘c’ of the flat was a clear 5 wave down from 5194.55 to 5095.55.  If this marks the completion of wave ‘c’ then in this case the wave ‘c’ is a truncated wave. This is perfectly allowed in Elliott Wave rules for the Flat wave.


Flat




a
5189.4
5041.8
147.6

b
5041.8
5194.55
152.75
103.49%
c
5194.55
5095.55
99
67.07%


Nifty Elliott wave analysis hourly chart:




Nifty Elliott wave analysis 5 min chart:




Nifty pivot table:

GVQ5JFKE68CR

Nifty Heikin Ashi Charts for 27-06-2012

Nifty Daily Heikin Ashi Chart:

Nifty Hourly Heikin Ashi Chart:

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

WD Gann's 28 Trading Rules

  • Never risk more than 10% of your trading capital in a single trade.
  • Always use stop-loss orders.
  • Never overtrade.
  • Never let a profit run into a loss.
  • Don 't enter a trade if you are unsure of the trend. Never buck the trend.
  • When in doubt, get out, and don't get in when in doubt.
  • Only trade active markets.
  • Distribute your risk equally among different markets.
  • Never limit your orders. Trade at the market.
  • Don't close trades without a good reason.
  • Extra monies from successful trades should be placed in a separate account.
  • Never trade to scalp a profit.
  • Never average a loss.
  • Never get out of the market because you have lost patience or get in because you are anxious from waiting.
  • Avoid taking small profits and large losses.
  • Never cancel a stop loss after you have placed the trade.
  • Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.
  • Be willing to make money from both sides of the market.
  • Never buy or sell just because the price is low or high.
  • Pyramiding should be accomplished once it has crossed resistance levels and broken zones of distribution.
  • Pyramid issues that have a strong trend.
  • Never hedge a losing position.
  • Never change your position without a good reason.
  • Avoid trading after long periods of success or failure.
  • Don't try to guess tops or bottoms.
  • Don't follow a blind man's advice.
  • Reduce trading after the first loss; never increase.
  • Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; or getting in right and out wrong. This is making a double mistake.

Crucial levels to watch out for Nifty

5 Day EMA        - 5125 [minor resistance zone] - 5044
5 Day Low EMA - 5089
20 Day SMA      - 5037

Nifty seems to be range bound between 5000 - 5200

It has to break this range upwards, this week for a positive move. If it fails to break then there could be a danger of falling deeper. This consolidation will bring up all the averages and it could provide a strong push for Nifty to break upwards. Being a settlement week, there could be more volatility ahead.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis 5 min chart:

Nifty pivot table:

Monday, June 25, 2012

Nifty needs to show impulsive move up

If Nifty is following the 'c' of  'b' or 'c' in either case it has to be an impulsive up move. Now it has to break this range bound move and show the real characteristics. If not then we should be worried.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis chart:




Nifty pivot table:

Friday, June 22, 2012

Will Nifty may end upward correction soon ?


As noticed yesterday, Nifty did not show the characteristics of an impulse move down. Hence the alternative count is the most preferred count. Now two scenarios emerges again as per Elliott Wave analysis,

a.  yesterday’s low 5093.55 could be the ‘b’ of ‘b’ or ‘b’ of ‘C’. Depending on whether c=a or c=1.618 times ‘a’ this may target 5186.4 or 5243.781

a
5041.8
5134.65
92.85

b
5134.65
5093.55
41.1
44.26%
c
5093.55
5186.4
5243.781



c=a
c=1.618*a


b. Another possibility is ‘B’ is completed at 5041.80 as an expanding triangle starting from 5124.35 and ‘C’ is in progress. In that case if c=a then target could be “5396.15” and if c=1.618 times ‘a’ then target could be “5615.10”

a
4770
5124.35
354.35

b
5124.35
5041.8
82.55
23.30%
c
5041.8
5396.15
5615.138



c=a
c=1.618*a


Nifty Elliott Wave analysis - Hourly Chart
Nifty Elliott Wave analysis - 5 min chart:





Nifty Pivot table: