Crutial day for the month and close above 5241 or 5301 will confirm the bullishness for the May month

Trade with pivots for the day and manage it with small SL.

NIFTY:

OI:

Weekly close important

Last week Nifty made an engulfing bullish pattern and a confirmation this week is necessary for a comfortable week ahead.

Trade based on pivot and averages. Only a firm move above 5218, 5234, 5250 will strengthen bullish view. If not those levels will act as strong resistance.

NIFTY:

OI:

If resisted around 5235 range then it may correct more

Only cross 5275 will give strength to NIFTY.

Nifty:

OI:

Above 5230 resistance is at 5248/5260

Below 5230 weakness continuous, below 5212, daily pivot weakness increases.

NIFTY:

OI:

Turned down

Considering the  extreme overbought situation for the very short term there is a possibility of a short bounce. This may go near 5234 - 5249- 5263 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% retracement of the fall from 5310 to 5187.15. These can be used as opportunity to sell. Mild strength may emerge only after a move above 5162 5 day EMA.

NIFTY:

OI:

Below 5291 more weekness, only a firm move above 5338 will strengthen the up move

Nifty table:

Options OI:

Strentgh will emerge upon movement above 5338

Nifty is grinding around this region for two days now. There are quite a lot of resistances crowded in this region and a deceive move above this will strengthen bullish view. Nifty should close above 5279 for this weekly +veness to   persist.

Day	Open	High	Low	Close
4/20/2012	5320.6	5342.45	5291.3	5332.4			Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot							HL5	5384
S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	HL4	5361
5251	5271	5302	5322	5353	5373	5404	HL3	5346
5 Hr EMA	5 DAvg	5 DEma	13 DEma	21 DEma	34 DEma	55 DEma	LL3	5318
5325	5271	5291	5277	5280	5278	5252	LL4	5,304
							LL5	5,281
FIBO Retracement table
From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5291.5	5337.5	(46)	5327	5320	5315	5309	5304	5301
5342	5293.5	49	5305	5312	5318	5323	5329	5332
5220	5342	(122)	5313	5295	5281	5267	5252	5244
5379	5184	195	5230	5258	5282	5305	5328	5340
5136	5379	(243)	5322	5286	5258	5229	5200	5185
5499	5136	363	5222	5275	5318	5360	5403	5426
5171	5499	(328)	5422	5374	5335	5296	5258	5237
5630	5136	494	5253	5325	5383	5441	5500	5531

@ 3:25

50 DMA @ 5338 is key for today

Day	Open	High	Low	Close
4/19/2012	5320.7	5342	5293.45	5300			Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot							HL5	5349
S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	HL4	5327
5233	5263	5282	5312	5330	5360	5379	HL3	5313
5 Hr EMA	5 DAvg	5 DEma	13 DEma	21 DEma	34 DEma	55 DEma	LL3	5287
5309	5260	5270	5267	5275	5275	5249	LL4	5,273
							LL5	5,251
FIBO Retracement table
From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5342	5293.5	49	5305	5312	5318	5323	5329	5332
5220	5342	(122)	5313	5295	5281	5267	5252	5244
5379	5184	195	5230	5258	5282	5305	5328	5340
5136	5379	(243)	5322	5286	5258	5229	5200	5185
5499	5136	363	5222	5275	5318	5360	5403	5426
5171	5499	(328)	5422	5374	5335	5296	5258	5237
5630	5136	494	5253	5325	5383	5441	5500	5531

5340, 50 Day SMA is key

5340 is 80% retracement level of the fall from 5379 to 5184 as well. This is HL4 level of Camerilla. This is also Weekly high EMA as well. This level may provide a great resistance but once crossed it will be bulls march. Staying below 5233 may indicate further weakness.

Day	Open	High	Low	Close
4/18/2012	5266.6	5298.2	5208.35	5289.7			Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot							HL5	5381
S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	HL4	5340
5143	5176	5233	5265	5322	5355	5412	HL3	5315
5 Hr EMA	5 DAvg	5 DEma	13 DEma	21 DEma	34 DEma	55 DEma	LL3	5265
5270	5245	5255	5262	5272	5273	5247	LL4	5,240
							LL5	5,198
FIBO Retracement table
From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5379	5184	195	5230	5258	5282	5305	5328	5340
5136	5379	(243)	5322	5286	5258	5229	5200	5185
5499	5136	363	5222	5275	5318	5360	5403	5426
5171	5499	(328)	5422	5374	5335	5296	5258	5237
5630	5136	494	5253	5325	5383	5441	5500	5531

Volatile day ahead due to RBI monetary review

Staying above 5214, hourly trend remain upwards and may test 5246/5260 50% / 61.8% of the fall from 5307 to 5184. If goes above 5282 which is also the falling trend line, then market may turn upwards. Staying below 5214 will test 5125.

Day	Open	High	Low	Close
4/17/2012	5190.6	5233.5	5183.5	5226.2			Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot							HL5	5277
S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	HL4	5254
5145	5164	5195	5214	5245	5264	5295	HL3	5240
5 Hr EMA	5 DAvg	5 DEma	13 DEma	21 DEma	34 DEma	55 DEma	LL3	5212
5218	5236	5238	5257	5270	5272	5245	LL4	5,199
							LL5	5,176
FIBO Retracement table
From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5307	5184	123	5213	5231	5246	5260	5275	5282
5136	5379	(243)	5322	5286	5258	5229	5200	5185
5499	5136	363	5222	5275	5318	5360	5403	5426
5171	5499	(328)	5422	5374	5335	5296	5258	5237
5630	5136	494	5253	5325	5383	5441	5500	5531

If reverses within around 100 points then 5600 is in sight

Day	Open	High	Low	Close
4/16/2012	5255.7	5306.75	5185.4	5207.45			Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot							HL5	5329
S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	HL4	5274
5038	5112	5160	5233	5281	5355	5402	HL3	5241
5 Hr EMA	5 DAvg	5 DEma	13 DEma	21 DEma	34 DEma	55 DEma	LL3	5174
5231	5238	5244	5262	5275	5275	5246	LL4	5,141
							LL5	5,086
FIBO Retracement table
From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5307	5186	121	5215	5232	5247	5261	5275	5283
5136	5379	(243)	5322	5286	5258	5229	5200	5185
5499	5136	363	5222	5275	5318	5360	5403	5426
5171	5499	(328)	5422	5374	5335	5296	5258	5237
5630	5136	494	5253	5325	5383	5441	5500	5531

Closed above the pivot point

Day	Open	High	Low	Close
4/13/2012	5246.75	5290.6	5246.75	5276.85			Camerilla Levels
Daily Pivot							HL5	5321
S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3	HL4	5301
5208	5228	5252	5271	5296	5315	5340	HL3	5289
5 Hr EMA	5 DAvg	5 DEma	13 DEma	21 DEma	34 DEma	55 DEma	LL3	5265
5275	5261	5262	5272	5281	5279	5247	LL4	5,253
							LL5	5,233
FIBO Retracement table
From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5206	5274	(68)	5258	5248	5240	5232	5224	5220
5379	5191	188	5235	5263	5285	5307	5329	5341
5136	5379	(243)	5322	5286	5258	5229	5200	5185
5499	5136	363	5222	5275	5318	5360	5403	5426
5171	5499	(328)	5422	5374	5335	5296	5258	5237
5630	5136	494	5253	5325	5383	5441	5500	5531

NIFTY getting ready for 12-04-2012

Yesterday's bounce and retracements were swift. Closed at the pivot level 5227 for today which is just above the daily low EMA. Interesting to watch as how the market will open today. If it opens down then immediate level to look for is 5209 hourly low EMA and pivot support 5191 which happens to be the low recorded yesterday. At the moment the trend appears to be mildly +ve. If the market sustains above 5255 [5 day EMA] then it can go towards the 5300+ range. Key level to watch out for are 5252 which is 80% retracement of the fall from 5263 to 5206 which happened yesterday afternoon.

Slow but study down move

Nifty has closed below its 5 DEma, which is 5269. Hence day trend remains down. Chances are that it may go down until 5150 range before commencing upward journey towards 5450/5650 range. This down move may consume little more time may resemble the down move from 5630 to 5171 or 5499 to 5136. If it breaks 5090 range then more downside may be expected.

Pivot : Nifty has closed above its pivot level 5237. Hence chances are that it may go up to 5262 range before retracing.

Done 61.8% of the retracement for the rise from 5136 to 5379

Yesterday nifty has completed the 61.8% retracement for the rise from 5136 to 5379. If Nifty is able t manage to stay above 5251 which is the 5 Hr EMA then it may march towards 5282 5 Day EMA. This will be the resistance which once crossed then it may go towards 5320 area. If 5349 is crossed them the complete trend reverses to upwards and may march higher towards 5450 / 5650.

Daily Pivot:

S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
5152	5190	5212	5250	5272	5310	5332

Closed above 55 DMA

Nifty touched a high of 5378 and a low of 5344 and closed at 5359 above 55 day DMA of 5345. However it has closed below wednesday's pivot of 5360. Tomorrow if it manage to stay above this pivot 5360 may take it to 5374/5395 or else it may dip to 5347/5327.

5321 happens to be 23.6% retracement point of the rise from 5136 to today's high of 5378. A dip below 5184 may indicate the trend reversal to downwards. until then it may just be the retracement and the major trend remains up towards 5674.

Why I started this blog?

My first idea about this blog is to keep track of my thoughts and make notes. I have been finding it very difficult to locate all my notes in a single place. Many a times I spend time in searching for them. May be later I may open it up for everyone to take a look at them and use them if that suites you.