Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 17-10-2012

Nifty Seems to have lost steam and turned down swiftly in the afternoon. Currently we can see multiple probabilities at work.
1. Nifty has not reached the equality target of the wave b (a=c) but turned down instead. This could be that the wave b up was turning out to be a flat correction and yesterday's move at or beyond 5637 was the wave b of b. Which means another wave up is required to complete this wave b. We can observe this up move - if this turns out to be an impulse which targets 5635.65+ (84x0.618 = 51.912) = 5687.562 or a=c which will take it to near 5719.25.
2. Current down move is the wave c and has completed wave 1, 3 and now a retracement in wave 4 to be in play. This may go up to 5683.00
3. Retracement of the basic fall from 5815 up to 5747 @ 61.8%

Interesting thing to note is yesterday's fall looks like took support at the double bottom!
Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty Hourly chart:

Nifty 5 min chart:

Nifty hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty hourly chart with ATR:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 16-10-2012

Nifty seems to have completed the wave b of wave b little late yesterday. Further up move is not as dramatic as expected. It is taking longer than expected time to complete. Ideally the complete correction move this bigger wave b should have got over yesterday but is extendig. Which means it is trying to get the RSI readings into the overbought area (or at least little higher) just to turn down swiftly. This indicates that wave c may not reach its fullest extent and may reverse at around 0.618 of wave a (5637 - 5720.6 = 83.6)  5653.10+ 51.66 = 5704.76 or at the maximum 5653.10 + 83.60 = 5736.7

We need to be very careful and watch the strength in the current up move and be ready with the plan to jump in at the sign of weakness.

Nifty Daily chart:

Nifty hourly chart:

Nifty 5 min chart:

Hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty hourly chart with ATR:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 15-10-2012

Market seems to have done with the wave a of the this correction. Also spent conisderable amount of time completing the wave b as a flat (running flat?). The 5 wave decline seems to be completed on Friday's close and the upward move to complete wave c has begun. This may go up to 5751 which is the fibo target of 61.8% for a reasonable wave b. Further to which market may go down dramatically to complete ~178 points of (5751-178 = 5573) range. This may help the market to complete wave iv or wave d of the large up move to complete the wave C.
Nifty Daily Elliott Wave analysis:

Nifty Hourly Elliott Wave analysis:

Nifty 5 min Elliott Wave analysis:

Nifty hourly chart with 9,14 RSI, 35 D:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 11-10-2012

Nifty high made at 5815 seems to be an ending diagonal which will be observed either in wave 5 or as part of wave c. In our case this can be considered as wave c. Currently nifty is in the correction mode and last three days movement looks like a leading diagonal which has the sub waves 5-3-5-3-5. This could be wave a of the a-b-c correction. Or this could be wave 1 of a bigger fall. As on yesterday evening it appears like it has completed the wave and next movement will be a retracement of this fall. This may typically go up near 5751 which is 61.8% range of this fall.

Nifty Daily Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty hourly Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty 5 min Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty hourly chart with 6, 14 RSI & 35 D:
RSI has reached oversold region but has not given a buy signal yet. Today market may open gap up. If this gap up is anything around 50-60 points then that may complete the wave a of this correction move. We have to wait for a pullback again to re-enter (if not already entered this up move). Given the time taken for the current move down which is approximately 5 days, this a-b-c correction may take nearly 2-3 days to complete. Further the down move may be violent.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 05-10-2012

Nifty very beautifully jumped up yesterday and spent rest of the day consolidating in minute sub wave iv of (iii) of v of III. Possibility is today it may go up again in wave v of (iii) to near 5850 range. Yesterday's sub wave iv was flat and the 5 wave decline in wave c was complete in 5 min chart.

Nifty daily chart with Elliott wave label:

Nifty hourly chart with Elliott wave label:

Nifty 5 min chart with Elliott wave label:

Nifty hourly chart with 9,14 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 04-10-2012

Market do not seem to be stopping or reversing but crouching up.
Rethinking about the wave label. It may be possible that the sub wave 5 of the current wave 3 (c) may be extending and is subdividing in itself. With that possibility, daily chart is re-labeled. This may take the market to near 5900 level as well.

Daily chart:

hourly chart:

hourly chart with 9,14 RSI - 35 D:

Hourly chart with ATR:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 03-10-2012

Nifty seems to have entered the wave C of the flat correction in wave 4 of wave C up. Monday's move appear like the wave 1 & wave 2 sub waves of wave C. Since we are counting this wave 4 as a flat, which means the wave a and wave b both are having three sub waves a-b-c and the current wave c is expected to subdivide into 5 sub waves. This may go up to c=a or c=1.618x a. Let us wait and watch. There is another posibility that this may be less than a as well. At a minimum this has to go at least 0.618 x a. Wave a was 5719.60 to 5638.90 = 80.70. So c will be a minimum of 49.87 (5735.05 - 49.87) =  5685.17, c=a => 5654.35, c=1.618x a = (-130.5726) = 5604.47

Daily chart:

Daily chart with 9 RSI :

Hourly chart:

Hourly chart with 9,14 RSI  & 35 D:

5 min chart with Elliott wave labeling:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 28-09-2012

Nifty almost made a double bottom (5638.90 & 5640) yesterday, as seen in hourly chart.

Nifty also appears to have completed the 4th wave with this as a double zig-zag. Now market can move up to complete the wave 5 of wave 3 of wave c.
Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

As usual - our study of ATR vs. market is shown in the below chart. We can see that ATR crossed its trigger line and moved up yesterday.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 27-09-2012

Nifty was range bound for the entire day yesterday. It seems to have got support near the developing 5 Day EMA around 5636 - 5645 range. It has also given a positive divergence in the 9 RSI in hourly chart. Only concerning factor in the daily chart the 9 RSI has crossed below the trigger line. If the market turns up violently then this will again cross over above the trigger line. Another interesting factor to observe is, this being the counter trend move, the 14 RSI (hourly chart) has rebounded from 40 range. (actually near 35)

This can be treated as completion of wave 4 of wave 3 of wave C.
Now this gives hope for the the wave 5 of the 3 of C upwards near the 5750 range.

Nifty Daily chart with Elliott Wave labeling:

Hourly chart:

Nifty 9 RSI and 35 D on hourly chart:

As a continuation of my study on ATR co-relation to Nifty movement, I have attached the last chart with 7 point ATR and the trigger line. Yesterday it has almost kissed the trigger line. In fact it has done that twice in the current correction phase.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 26-09-2012

Nifty continued the correction and confined to below 5700. So I have reworked the entire correction phase starting from 5719. The labels are updated in the hourly chart. We maybe still in the correection which might take us to near 5600 range before promising any meaningful bounce. So far it has completed wave a and wave b of the wave iv. Wave c should take it to re-test the channel bottom.


Daily chart:

Hourly chart:

Another interesting observation that I had was plotting the 7 day ATR and a trend 9 day moving average of it as trend line against the hourly nifty. I had observed that whenever the trend line cross over happens, market moves in a direction. This is just a study and posted it for observation. Need to review this for a larger set of data and backtest it.

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 25-09-2012

Nifty is consolidating after the big rise to 5719. Going by the nature of this correction, it appears like a triangle of which wave a-b-c are almost over and wave d & e might be pending. This leads us to think that the current move might be the 4th wave of the 3rd wave [or wave c] of the wave C. Which means a small rise above 5720 to near 5750 range [as per the daily chart - channel resistance zone] might be pending. Following which a major correction in wave 4 [or wave d] of wave C.


However one important observation to note at this stage is - hourly 9 RSI & 35 D chart has shown a clear negative divergence. Even then I feel a small bounce can still be possible, given the strength of the market and shallow nature of the current correction.

Daily Elliott wave analysis for Nifty :

Hourly Elliott wave analysis for Nifty :

Nifty hourly chart with 9 RSI & 35 D:

Nifty daily chart with 9 RSI:
RSI is in the verge of cross over on its trend line or the triggering line to indicate a down move.