Nifty intra day - Elliott wave analysis for 12-07-2012

Nifty seems to have completed a 5 wave fall. According to Elliott wave analysis the move down from 5348.55 to 5217.80 can be counted in two ways. Wave ‘i’ starting from 5348.55 and wave ‘i’ part of the wave ‘c’ starting from 5335.45. In either case we seem to have completed the 5^th wave and market is moving outside the channel line as shown in the chart. This can be counted as wave ‘b’ or starting of next wave up.

Following is the Fibonacci retracement table for the above two cases:

From	To	Fall/Rise	23.60%	38.20%	50%	61.80%	73.60%	80%
5335.4	5217.8	118	5246	5263	5277	5290	5304	5312
5348.45	5217.8	131	5249	5268	5283	5299	5314	5322

Nifty Elliott wave analysis of 5 min chart:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 12-07-2012

As per Elliott wave analysis of daily chart, Nifty is heading high on ‘e’ wave of the diagonal. However whole of yesterday Nifty has spent in grinding in a corrective phase. As we discussed on 10-07-2012 out of the three options, market seems to follow the option I [Please read the caution from 11-07-2012 post]

Internal subdivisions of this corrective phase seems like a double zigzag of which w –x are complete. Sub wave ‘y’ is in the making, of which a-b are done and ‘c’ wave is to be completed. This should complete around 5290 range.

One line of caution – This could be a Leading diagonal [I believe so as per the internal wave counts.] of an ending diagonal to complete the bigger ‘C’.

In either case market should correct soon after reaching the channel line [or a minor over shoot may occur]. This line is rising every hour/day. If it touches the line today then it may be around 5380-5400 range.  Then it may retrace the entire rise from 4770 to 5370/5400.  Once confirmed this may indicate that Nifty headed down.

Another way to count this wave is, ‘e’ has already completed at 5348.45 and the correction is set in. This can be confirmed with a move below 5257.9 which is the beginning of the ‘e’ wave. [This can also be treated as an invalidation point].

Yesterday we can see another interesting observation in the market – in the daily chart Nifty has formed a Bearish Harami. As usual in candle stick pattern formations, this requires confirmation today. Once confirmed we may say nifty heading down.

Which form will the market take now is to be observed.

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis of daily chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis of hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave Analysis of 5 min chart:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for 11-07-2012

As per Elliott wave analysis of daily chart, Nifty is heading high on ‘e’ wave of the diagonal. As we discussed in yesterday out of the three options, market seems to follow the option I.

One line of caution – This could be a Leading diagonal [I believe so as per the  internal wave counts.] of an ending diagonal to complete the bigger ‘C’.

In either case market should correct soon after reaching the channel line [or a minor over shoot may occur]. This line is rising every hour/day. If it touches the line today then it may be around 5380-5400 range.  Then it may retrace the entire rise from 4770 to 5370/5400.  

Depending on whether it will be wave 2 [if the current wave is a leading diagonal] or a fresh wave 1 [if the current wave is an ending diagonal and completes the bigger ‘C’]. In either case the confirmation of these will be far away [reversing from 5070 or 5000 range or breaking below 4890 range]. Hence trade the market with reasonable stop loss.

Which form will the market take now is to be observed.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis for daily chart:

 Nifty Elliott wave analysis for hourly chart:

Nifty Pivot table:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for 04-07-2012

Currently we seem to be working with two differen targets for 'C' wave. As per the equality a=c we have a target of 5515.80. As per the currently developing impulse wave, so far we seem to have completed 3rd wave. And we are in the developing 4th wave. If 4th wave takes 38.2% of wave 3 which is 5316.85 - 5125.45 = 191.4 in length, is 5243.70. A 61.8% of wave 1 through wave 4 is (5243.70 - 5095.55 = 148.85 ) 91.75. This gives a target for 5th wave of  'C' as 5335.30.

This makes us to think there is a possibililty of wave 5 to extend and subdivide. In that case we may have to think of 1.618 or 2.618 fibonacci relations for 5th wave. And this will have targets of 5483.50, 5631.70 respectively.

We shall review this posibility as wave develops.

Nifty hourly elliott wave analysis:

Nifty Pivot Table:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis 27-06-2012 Intra day update

Nifty appear to have completed wave 'ii' correction of the upmove as a flat.
Wave 'a' was a double zigzag (3-3-3), 'b' was a simple zigzag (3) and 'c' was an impulse (5) completing near 2 x a = 2 x 15.35 = 30.7 [5159.9-30.7 = 5129.2, at 5129.45

	Wave start	Wave End	Length	Ratio	Alt
1	5095.55	5131.4	35.85
2	5131.4	5120.8	10.6	0.295676
3	5120.8	5158.85	38.05	TRUE	58.0053	5178.805
4
a	5158.85	5143.5	15.35
b	5143.5	5159.9	16.4	106.84%
c	5159.9	5144.55		24.8363	30.7
				5135.064	5129.2
5	5129.45

Nifty keeps various options open at this stage

One way to look at Nifty from Elliott wave analysis perspective is to see that a minor wave 'b' is in progress and has completed its internal wave 'b' and is proceeding with the 'c' wave. If this argument holds good then it may face resistance near 5124/5 which is a=c equality target and then reverse from here to yet another a=c equality target of 4977 a length of 148. However the golden ratio 61.8% of the 'a' wave will come near 5133 and this minor 'b' may extend upto that point. In that case the 'c' may 4985. This is very close to the 50% retracement of the rise from 4770 to 5189 at 4980.

Alternative:

Nifty internal subdivisions as per Elliott Wave analysis:

Pivot table and key averages:

Currently my wave notations kind of haphazard, I shall standardize it shortly. I shall add the bigger picture wave's as well shortly.

Nifty fast fall, could be the 'A' of a correction

Yesterday's fast fall from the high of 5190 to 5042 made all difference in the Elliott wave counting and gives a perspective that wave five was not over at 5124.40. Only alternative counting is to think of the move from 4995 - 5124.40 - 5016 - 5144.35 - 5048 - 5190 as an ending triangle. [though not that comfortable in this labeling] Now the a-b-c correction is in progress. The angle of fall from 5190 to 5042 is so steep, which is normally observed in the first leg of the correction, the 'A'. Since the time taken for this fall was only a day, we may expect a more grinding 'B' followed by 'C'. Since this is expected to be the second wave, it may also retrace quite a bit of wave 1 which is 5190-4770 = 420 points. So far we have done 148 points.

Nifty Pivot table:

Since the labeling is not clear, have removed 5 min chart from the post.
Nifty Elliott wave analysis of hourly chart:

Nifty daily Heikin Ashi chart:

Nifty hourly Heikin Ashi chart:

Nifty 5 min Heikin Ashi chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis - will it complete 2nd wave as an expanded flat?

If the second wave was an expanded flat and currently the 'c' is in progress, then will it complete the 'c' wave near 5035.64 [or 5041] and start the 3rd wave up? This can be possible if the 'c' wave is truncated and stops here. There is another possibility of 'c' extending and in that case it may go up to 1.382 times the 'a' wave to touch 4994.10 which is also the terminating point of previous 4th wave 4994.95. Which one will the market prefer? Well we shall wait and watch.

We should see the price moving in a impulsive manner right through the previous high 5144.40 This will confirm the starting of third wave.

Nifty Pivot table:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott Wave analysis 5 min chart:

Nifty Daily Heikin Ashi chart:

Nifty Hourly Heikin Ashi chart:

Nifty 5 min Heikin Ashi chart:

Nifty Minor correction ahead?

Nifty staying above 5074/5082, 5 Day EMA/SMA is important for the up move. Sofar all the corrections have got support at the respective channel bottom. Yesterday's close is exactly at the channel line, a drop below which will trigger a minor correction which may go up to 5095.95. If that is broken then 5015.50 is the next level. So a stop loss of 5095.95 to be used.

Nifty pivot table:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis of hourly chart:

Nifty Elliott wave analysis of 5 min chart:

Nifty Heikin Ashi charts:

Nifty Heikin Ashi daily chart:

Nifty Heikin Ashi hourly chart:

Nifty Heikin Ashi 5 min chart: