Gold Elliott wave analysis for 25-09-2012

Gold seems to have one set of a-b-c correction at the low of yesterday around 31320. This could be wave a or wave 4. We are yet to determine that. It seems to have started a move up. This could be the next leg of the impulse of is part of the wave b. We should observe the strength and nature of this up move to confirm.

Gold Daily chart :

Gold hourly chart:

Gold Elliott Wave analysis for 22-09-2012

After a long time, I got a chance to review the Gold chart. Since I have only recent data about gold, I'll analyze only the short term wave counts.

Since July Gold seems to be in a impulsive up move from 29000 range. Considering this as the starting of the impulse wave up, we completed wave i near 29870 range and a shallow wave ii completed around 29570 range. Next wave up in wave iii seems to subdivide and possibly completed all the 5 subwaves of it near 32440 range 7 days ago. Since then Gold is in a correction mode and 31625 range. This could be wave a or wave i. Next gold market has retraced upwards until 32130 which is approximately 61.8% retracement of the fall from 32440 to 31625. This could be marked as wave b or wave ii. Henceforth Gold is in a down move again. This is unfolding as impulse form. This could be wave c or wave ii of wave a. We shall wait and watch how the retracement unfolds from then on. If it unfolds like an aggressive impulse move up then it might be the beginning of the 5th wave up.

Gold daily chart with Elliott Wave labeling:

Gold hourly chart with Elliott Wave labeling.

Nifty Elliott wave analysis of Gold in INR for 07-08-2012

Gold seems to be forming a-b-c-x-a-b-c structure. This is detailed in the chart below with the channel lines and labels. Currently we may be nearing the end of wave a once the 5the wave is done. Then we may see a side wise movement which may try to touch the channel top to reverse and complete wave c.



Gold Elliott wave analysis on hourly chart:

Gold Elliott wave analysis for 12-07-2012

As per Elliott wave analysis of daily chart, Gold is heading high on ‘x’ wave of the currently ongoing correction or has started an impulse move upwards. In either case it has to go up for a while now.

Elliott wave analysis of Gold on a 5 min chart shows internal subdivisions of this corrective phase. It seems like a double zigzag of which w –x is complete. Sub wave ‘y’ is also completed at Friday’s low around 29180. Fibonacci ratio 50% of the rise from 27871 to 30431 is near to 29151. Hence we believe that the double zigzag might have completed at this level.

At this stage as per Elliott wave count we are expecting a bounce which could turn out to be another ‘x’ wave or the beginning of another impulse move up. We shall wait and watch for the wave characteristics of this move.

One line of caution – Since I do not have the Gold spot price, I have taken the currently running months future price for plotting the chart. Also I do not have much history data; hence the bigger picture validation or Elliott wave count is not done.

Gold in hourly chart shows divergence in 9 hour RSI. This is mildly positive and Gold may see a bounce here.

 Gold hourly chart with RSI (9) showing divergence:

Gold Elliott Wave analysis of 5 min chart :